Commentary

Why “The Market” Is Not What You Think It Is

The Market Is Not What You Think

With the current market environment looking more and more like that of the late 1990s, I decided to revisit that time in chart form and see what potential pitfalls exist for investors that can be avoided this time around.  I think you will agree that the pictures below are both informative and frightening, the latter being the case if you do not ... [read more]

Still Trending…

Still Trending

Still Trending… The first week of earnings did little to change the overall market’s trend. In fact, it may have provided reasons to reinforce it. While the week's reports were mostly beats at the top and bottom lines (just like three months ago), the reception to some of the more cyclical company earnings reports (Banks and Industrials) were ... [read more]

Summer Break

Summer Break

Summer Break… If you are not already on break, then you are thinking about busting out soon to take some days off before the Q2 earnings season hits in three weeks. This is the last week of June and the second quarter so expect some window dressing into the July 4th holiday weekend. It is pretty easy to see which sectors PMs do not want to show ... [read more]

4 Ways to Discover an Elephant Bull Market

4 Ways to Discover an Elephant Bull Market

The Silk Road was an ancient network of trade routes connecting the East to West for centuries. Named after the lucrative silk trade, the route was forged in 200 BCE by the Han dynasty. Its usefulness extended into the Roman Empire and Medieval times until its final demise in the 1300's under the Mongol hoards lead by Genghis Khan. The ... [read more]

It’s Tango Time…

It's Tango Time

As the VIX flirts with single digits, the S&P 500 has been flopping around like a live fish on deck. But for U.S. investors in foreign equities, the music continues to play as cheaper valuations overseas and a weaker U.S. dollar pushed fund flows into other geographies. As you might have guessed, Argentina has led the way with a 40% gain for ... [read more]

Repositioning…

Repositioning

While the world's superpowers reposition their military strength toward the borders of North Korea, the financial markets look to be following closely in their wake and reordering their asset weighting toward one of less risk. North Korea, Syria and Russia remain major diplomatic question marks for the U.S. State Department right now. We will see ... [read more]

3 Tips for a Successful Distressed Energy Investment

3 Tips for a Successful Distressed Energy Investment

There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures. Julius Caesar Act 4, scene 3, 218–224 Being a contrarian means you ... [read more]

March Madness

March Madness

How is your bracket doing? Before the ACA Repeal and Replace plan hit the court last week, it already looked like its odds of passage were longer than Mount St. Mary's chance to win the Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament on April 3rd. We all know that this is just the first pass in a long negotiation, however, you had to think that the odds were ... [read more]

How Geopolitical Forces Influence Markets

How Geopolitical Forces Influence Markets

In our post-Cold War world, geopolitical developments have become larger and more frequent—and because these developments affect market and currency prices, investors need to navigate them. Those of you who follow my commentary know that I often speak of fundamental value as the tide that inexorably pulls prices toward it over longer-term time ... [read more]

One Audacious Move that Set Me Up for Success

sydney australia

It was the biggest career risk I had EVER taken! 2004 I was convinced we had entered the Chinese Century and a Resource Boom of note was about to ensue … I took a MAD plunge. I moved my young family across the world to ---> Sydney, Australia… In what seems all but farcical now, I would sit in coffee shops around the city with a ... [read more]